There has been much debate and discussion about the meaning of Elizabeth May's strong showing in London North-Centre. My feeling is that the results and exposure will add about 1 to 2 points to our future "first-choice" national polling numbers. However, as this poll taken after the Liberal leadership convention shows, we are still subject to the vagaries of external events and statistical variance, like all other parties.
The more significant (and more difficult to measure) impact of LNC will likely be in voters who move us from "fringe party" status in their minds to the category of "strong second-choice". Our Campaign Manager George Read has pointed out that there are four steps that an organization must go through in its development:
- Be Noticed
- Be Understood
- Be Trusted
- Be Preferred
The movement through these stages will be a necessary process for most voters, and by moving us to "second-choice" status it means that we are understood and trusted. We are likely to sit at that level in their minds for a while as they learn more about us and determine whether we should become their preferred choice.
If and when Elizabeth gets into the Leaders' debate during the next federal election I think we can expect at least an additional 2 to 3 point jump in our first-choice vote. In the 2001 election in BC Adriane Carr's performance led to a jump in Green Party support to 12%, so certainly anything is possible. By all accounts, Elizabeth handily won the debates in LNC, and this may have set the stage where a strong performance in the Leaders' debate combined with a solid overall campaign could be enough to pull the GPC into the double digits.
Some readers might think that the above numbers are rather modest after a 25% showing in the by-election. However, we need to recognize that the party was able to concentrate our resources in a riding in a way that won't be possible in the next general election. What I do believe is that the GPC can and will elect an MP sometime soon. But just as important for our long term success is continuing to make slow and steady progress in building the national infrastructure of the party. And a national increase of a couple of points per riding means a lot in that respect.
Until we do elect an MP we shouldn't let others define our growth in terms that suit them rather than in terms that reflect the new reality that the Green Party has brought to the Canadian political landscape. We are the fastest growing party in the country and, in my opinion, we are exactly on track for a Green Party majority in 2020. But a lot of preliminary work has to be done beforehand. We should measure our success against our own goals and objectives, and remind those who question our progress based on the single, somewhat artificial benchmark of whether or not we have an MP, that Rome wasn't built in a day.
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