From time to time I talk to people who are aware of Green Party successes in places like Germany and New Zealand.  But not many know that the Green Party of Canada is more successful in terms of popular support than the Green Parties in those countries. 

That is, our long-standing 10% or more in the polls handily trumps the 8.3% won by the Greens in Germany and the 5.3% won by the Greens in New Zealand.  Not to diminish the significance of those successes, but the nationally elected Greens in those other countries have typically come as a result of some form of proportional representation.  I'm not aware of any national Green Party other than Canada that has 10% support.

Canada's Green Party success is all the more striking given that our supporters keep supporting us, even though they know that it won't lead to immediate wins in their riding!

I just wanted to put this analysis out there, along with a thank you to our supporters who recognize that the most strategic vote is the one for the party with the core values that match their own.  We are in it for the long term, and you have helped the GPC come a long way in recent years.  I'm confident that the Greens can win Parliament by 2020 regardless of whether the electoral system is changed to incorporate some level of proportionality, as has been recommended to Parliament by the Law Commission of Canada (since disbanded).

Stephen Harper has signalled that he won't be calling an election because of the likelihood of another minority government:

"We're entering a period of minority government. We've had a couple in a row now," he said Wednesday.

Harper said with four political parties securing a minimum of 20 seats each, it would be difficult for any side to win a majority government.

"I think the possibility of a minority government in a subsequent election is pretty high," he said. "At the same time, I don't think Canadians want an election and the government is not seeking an election."

Harper is right that we are in a period of minority governments, but he is wrong about the root cause.  The situation of having four parties in a situation to win 20 seats has been the case ever since the Bloc was formed in 1991.  However, the new dynamic in play is that the Greens have built up our core level of support to 10% and this level of support is not going away.  Once voters switch to the Greens they don't go back to the older parties.

This 10% level of support has made it all but impossible for the Conservatives or Liberals to get into what has traditionally been considered comfortable majority territory of 40% or more in the polls.  Consider that in the past those two parties typically shared about 75% of the vote, with a floor of around 30%.  So one party could be at 40% in the polls and the other could be at 35%, or one could be at 43% and the other could be at 32%.  The proper timing of an election call in the latter situation could easily win a majority, and this situation often presented itself.

But now the Greens have pulled about 5% of their support from those two parties, so they only share about 70% or less support between them.  That means that for one party to get to (say) 43% in the polls the other party would have to be at 27%.  And that lower level is unlikely to occur.

The Conservatives and Liberals have both flirted with 40% support in recent years but they can't maintain it since it means the other party is hovering at a historical low of around 30%.  So it is difficult for their leadership to come up with a scenario where they can win a majority using traditional benchmarks. 

As it happens, the new benchmark for a majority is probably around 36% since the 10% of Green Party votes are not really in play. The breadth of our support means that there is no guarantee that the Greens will win even a single seat.  So 308 seats are in play between 90% of the voters voting for the other four major parties (e.g. 90% x 40% = 36%).  But it will be far harder for the Liberals or Conservatives to predict if they can win a majority at 36% or 37% (even if it might occur in practice), which is why Harper is hesitating to pull the trigger on an election.

One of the complaints against using proportional representation in our federal elections is that it will trigger the end of majority governments.  But Green supporters have already triggered this situation, perhaps permanently, even without winning a seat.  This is just one more example of how the current electoral system is broken and has to change.